How we estimate a store's revenue
46%
right band
The band matched the revenue the shop declared.
88%
right band or the next one
Off by one band at most.
80
French online shops
with declared revenue, used to set the rate and test it.
Always guessing the most common band scores 36% and 64%. So the estimate beats a blind guess, and it is still wrong about half the time. Use it to sort and segment a list. Do not quote it back to a store owner as their revenue.
The method
Search traffic times $34, then a band.
-
1
We measure the store's Google search traffic
We buy an estimate of each store's monthly traffic from Google search from a search data provider. The figure is called ETV: the search volume of each keyword the store ranks for, times the share of clicks its position usually gets. It counts search visits only. Ads, social, email and people who type the address are not in it.
-
2
We multiply it by $34
The rate comes from French companies that declare their revenue to the business registry. We kept only the ones filed as distance sellers (NAF code 47.91), because the revenue of the others also counts wholesale, shops and manufacturing. Of these, 80 have Google search traffic. Their median monthly revenue per point of ETV was 29.1 euros, which is about $34.
-
3
We round it down to one of five bands
The file never prints a revenue figure. A number like $41,312 would look far more certain than the method is.
Example
ETV 1,000 × $34 = $34,000 a month
Estimated Monthly Revenue (USD) = $25K-$100K
The bands
Five bands, wide on purpose.
Each band is four to five times the one below it. The cell holds the label in the first column.
| Band in the file | Monthly revenue (USD) | Google search traffic (ETV) |
|---|---|---|
| Under $5K | Under $5,000 | 1 to 147 |
| $5K-$25K | $5,000 to $24,999 | 148 to 735 |
| $25K-$100K | $25,000 to $99,999 | 736 to 2,941 |
| $100K-$500K | $100,000 to $499,999 | 2,942 to 14,705 |
| $500K+ | $500,000 or more | 14,706 or more |
Accuracy
How often it is right.
We tested the band against the revenue the 80 shops declared. To keep the test fair, we set the rate on four fifths of the shops and checked the band on the last fifth, five times over, so each shop was judged by a rate it did not help set.
| Method | Right band | Right band or the next |
|---|---|---|
| StoreRadar: ETV × $34 | 46% | 88% |
| Always guess the most common band | 36% | 64% |
What we tried and dropped
- A curve fitted on traffic was as often in the right band, less often within one band, and it found fewer of the largest shops.
- Reviews, product count, apps, social links, basket size and store age added nothing on this set.
- The textbook formula (traffic, divided by the search share of visits, times a conversion rate and a basket) came out 6.4 times too low.
Limits
When not to trust it.
- It was calibrated in France
- All 80 shops are French. Google search brings a different share of store visits in each country: about 18% in Germany, 22% in the Netherlands, 31% in France and 36% in the United Kingdom (Grips, November 2025 to April 2026). If a store gets more of its visits from elsewhere, each search visit stands for more sales, so the band may read low in Germany and the Netherlands. We have not measured this yet. The same $34 applies everywhere.
- It counts sales on the store's own website only
- The shops behind the rate sell at a distance, so the band estimates online-store sales. Amazon, wholesale and physical shops are not in it. For a brand that sells mostly elsewhere, the band reads low.
- The cell is blank when Google sees no traffic
- No search traffic does not mean a small store: French distance sellers with no Google traffic had a median revenue of 12,900 euros a month. So we leave the cell blank instead of guessing. The Search Traffic Status column then reads "No Google traffic found", or "Not measured yet" for a live store we have not measured.
- It is one month of traffic
- Each row gives the month of its traffic in the Search Traffic Month column. Traffic moves with the seasons and with Google updates, and the band moves with it. The test compared July 2026 traffic with accounts filed for 2023 to 2025.
- The test set is small
- 80 shops, with 8 to 29 in each band. Companies that publish their accounts can be larger than the average store. We will run the test again when the set grows, and update this page with the new figures.
Why we publish the error rate
Every revenue estimate is a guess. Ours says how good.
Store Leads trains its sales estimate on the revenue that large public merchants report, and its FAQ on estimated sales gives no accuracy figure. Its own blog post on revenue estimates calls traffic estimates "notoriously inaccurate", and we agree. That is why we tell you how often ours misses, measured on small shops like the ones in your list. Both pages were read on November 4, 2026.
Where you get it
In every one-time file.
- The $149 CSV of every Shopify store, the lists by country, industry, technology, app and theme, the files your AI assistant orders, and the list of French stores.
- The free sample has it too, so you can check the column on real stores before you buy.
- The free store checker names the column and keeps the value locked.
- Not in the Daily Feed of new stores: a store that launched yesterday has no search traffic yet.
It ships with the Google search traffic it is read from. The traffic figures are estimates too:
Want the details of every other column? All 72 columns, explained.
Everything you need to know
The short answers about the Estimated Monthly Revenue (USD) column.
Is the revenue band a fact?
No. An estimate from Google search traffic, not a fact. Right band 46% of the time, within one band 88% (tested on French stores). Use it to sort and segment stores, not as a store's real revenue.
Why a band and not a number?
Because the method is not precise enough for a number. A figure like $41,312 would hide that the right answer is often one band away.
Why is the cell blank for some stores?
Google shows no search traffic for the store, or we have not measured it yet. We never guess a band for these stores, because no search traffic does not mean a small store. The Search Traffic Status column says which case it is: "No Google traffic found" or "Not measured yet".
Does it work outside France?
The rate was set on French shops and applies everywhere. Google brings a smaller share of store visits in Germany and the Netherlands than in France, so the band may read low there. We have not measured this yet.
Does it include Amazon or wholesale sales?
No. The band estimates what a store sells through its own website. For a brand that sells mostly on marketplaces, through wholesale or in shops, it reads low.
Will the figures change?
Yes, when we test again on a larger set of stores. This page will show the new rate and the new accuracy, and every file built after that uses them.
Every store, with its revenue band.
One CSV. The estimate comes with its error rate.
